A Mathematical Model for the MLND Dynamics and Sensitivity analysis in a Maize Population

William Aloyce, Dmitry Kuznetsov, Livingstone S. Luboobi


Maize Lethal Necrosis disease (MLND) is a viral disease that can cause fatal damage to the crop of maize plants. This is very common in East Africa countries and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In this manuscript, a mathematical model has been developed to study and analyze the dynamics of the MLND in the maize crop population. The disease free (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE) points of the model has been computed and the basic reproduction number ($R_0$) derived using the next generation matrix method. We performed sensitivity analysis by using parametric values from literature and estimated ones. We found that the rates of transmission, $\lambda_{mo}$, $\beta_{{o}}$ and $\beta_{mm}$ are the most positively sensitive parameters. Numerical simulations were also performed to verify the analytical results.Thus, this research work recommends that deliberate strategic intervention should be targeted on the disease transmission rates which are significant for MLND transmission in order to eradicate the disease or reduce the intensity of the disease transmission in the maize population.

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