Modeling the Role of Wild Birds And Environment in the Dynamics Of Newcastle Disease in Village Chicken

Furaha Chuma, Gasper G. Mwanga, Damian Kajunguri

Abstract


Newcastle disease is common viral poultry disease which leads to a massive killing of chicken if preventive measures are not well taken. In this paper, we develop and analyze a deterministic model to investigate the role of wild birds and environment on the transmission dynamics of Newcastle disease in village chicken. We compute the basic reproduction number $\left(\mathcal{R}_{0}\right)$, a threshold that tells the presence of the disease in a population. Finally, we performed the sensitivity analysis of parameters to see their relationship with the basic reproduction number $\left(\mathcal{R}_{0}\right)$. The numerical results show that the basic reproduction number $\left( \mathcal{R}_{0}\right)$ is more sensitive to the contact rate between the susceptible village chicken, wild birds and contaminated environment. This implies that, more contamination of the Newcastle virus into the environment increase the chance for the repeatedly occurrence of the disease. The results also shows that increasing the clearance rate of Newcastle disease virus in the environment reduces the rate of spread of the disease in chicken population. Therefore, contaminated environment plays a crucial role in the transmission of Newcastle diseases in the village chicken population.


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