Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 and Its Transmission in Case of Ethiopia

Zeleke Beza, Gemechu Diriba

Abstract


In this paper, we attempt to describe the spread of COVID-19 based on an extensions of the well-known SEIR models. We bring in a new representation to appraise and manage the spread of infectious disease COVID-19 through SEIHR pandemic model, which is based on the supposition that the infected individuals are isolated and the necessary treatments are arranged so that they cannot taint the other residents in the community. Dynamics of the SEIHR model is presented by basic reproduction number R0 and the comprehensive stability analysis. The reproduction number was also determined for the epidemiological model and found to be consistent with the local stability condition for the disease-free equilibrium. We establish the positivity and boundedness of solutions, local and global stability analysis of equilibria to examine its epidemiological relevance. To validate the model and estimating the important model parameters and prediction about the disease, we consider the real cases of Ethiopia from 4th March to 20th August 2020.

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